All Things Iran

Gen. Michael Hayden in an interview with the Wall Street Journal warns that Iranian nuclear proliferation is approaching a danger point and the US is faced with only two options, both bad.

However, if the Arab spring tells us anything it’s that reform can come from within. Yes, it can productively be encouraged and or nurtured from the outside, but it doesn’t have to be beaten into existence by foreign “kinetic” (you’ve got to love those Washington euphemisms) intervention. Hayden proposes there are two possible ways for the US to deal with Iranian nuclear proliferation: A. “kinetic” intervention (presumably he means bombing nuclear sites); or B. do nothing. In the case of A, Iran would go even deeper underground in its bomb making, with even more embittered and intractable resolve and eventually get the bomb. I would add that the US would also lose the younger generation of Iranians who are now enamored of the West and thoroughly disenchanted with their thugocracy. In case B, Iran would get the bomb. Hayden further threatens that the message of Ghadaffi’s fate is “Look what happens when you give up nuclear ambitions,” meaning that Iran’s resolve is strengthened by Ghadaffi’s downfall.

I think this is saber rattling & FUD: OK, so Iran get’s the bomb in Hayden’s scenarios. Yes, that’s dangerous (but it’s going to happen anyway) and a clear setback for the US, but assume that’s the case and live with it.

There is, however, a third option, namely the one we are following now: isolation and covert undermining (i.e., sending the stuxnet worm to  mess up their centrifuges, sanctions, etc.). Iran still gets the bomb (which happens anyway) but it gets it late (we buy time if nothing else) but at least we have a younger generation of Iranians who don’t hate us. In other words, if Iran gets the bomb in any scenario, let’s take the scenario that works best for us.The most likely result of the third scenario is that the theocracy collapses from within, as happened in Egypt and Libya and is happening now in Syria and possibly Bahrain. This is in fact the scenario most worrisome to the ruling clerics. So insecure are they that they won’t even let Iranians have water gun fights in public lest it foreshadow the real thing (in a stance that surely casts a stern eye on bursting birthday balloons and pinatas). They would just love the West to pursue the “kinetic” option.

It’s in the best interests of the Iranians and the world for the Iranian clerics to not get what they want. We’ll do better if we channel the Arab spring along the paths of freedom and democracy than if we overtly intervene in Iran. No amount of media control can keep secret from the Iranian populace the successes of the Arab spring. They’re too bright, educated and resourceful for that. Their ability and sophistication are our fifth column.